How Likely Is It That Scott Peterson Could Be Found Innocent Decades Later?

Scott Peterson has been in prison since 2004, serving time for the murder of his wife Laci and their unborn child. For much of that time, he was a man on death row, until California imposed a moratorium on death sentences in 2019 and his verdict was overturned. Reprieve from capital punishment hasn't set Peterson free; he was re-sentenced to life in prison in 2021 (per CNN) and has remained behind bars. For many, it's a fitting end for him; Peterson admitted in court to affairs, he lied frequently to his mistresses about his wife and living situation, the circumstantial evidence against Peterson seemed strong, and the jury didn't take long to find him guilty.

Throughout his trial and sentence, however, Peterson has maintained his innocence. In a 2017 phone call to his sister-in-law, he blamed the police for failing to find Laci and insisted that other witnesses seeing Laci exonerated him. In 2024, he became the subject of a Peacock true crime series in which he argued via jailhouse interviews that the burglars of a neighboring house could have killed his wife.

Peterson hasn't pleaded his innocence alone. The Los Angeles Innocence Project took up his case in 2024. Dedicated to overturning wrongful convictions, the organization joined with Peterson's lawyers in fighting to free him based on new evidence.

The burglary that Scott Peterson has connected to his wife's death happened across the street from their house. Peterson's argument, which was considered by police at the time of Laci Peterson's disappearance, was that his wife, while out on a walk, attempted to stop the burglars and paid with her life. At the time of Peterson's trial, the judge overseeing the case dismissed any evidence related to the burglary; Laci disappeared on Christmas Eve, 2002, but the burglary was determined to have happened on December 26 (per The Modesto Bee).

But there were at least some witnesses who pinned the burglary as happening the same day Laci disappeared. One of them reported seeing a pregnant woman being taken away in a car. Since becoming involved in the case, the Los Angeles Innocence Project has said that recordings exist of prisoners, associates of one of the burglars, in which they explicitly state that Laci had seen the burglary. A confidential witness has also claimed to have been told by three different people in three different prisons that Laci was murdered by people committing a robbery.

Scraps of evidence, some debated since the initial trial, have also gotten fresh attention: a policeman's inconsistent testimony, neglected leads, additional witnesses afraid to come forward. And Peterson and his lawyers have for years argued that his initial trial was unfair, due to the failure of a juror to disclose previous legal involvement.

As of September 2024, Scott Peterson's bids for exoneration have hit several setbacks. The California Supreme Court ordered his case reexamined over Peterson's objections to the juror who hadn't disclosed prior legal proceedings in 2020 (per CNN), but it was determined that the juror hadn't acted out of malice and the bid for a new trial was denied. The Los Angeles Innocence Projected moved to have new DNA testing done on a blood-stained mattress once suspected of being connected to Laci Peterson's death, but this too was denied. The original prosecution team against Peterson has vigorously defended their work, and Peterson's past dishonesty has continued to harm him in legal proceedings and the public eye.

Statistics also argue against any hope that Peterson might be found innocent. The Georgia Innocence Project has reported that between 4% and 6% of prisoners in the American penal system are innocent. But the Spodek Law Group cited a study on overturned convictions that found an even narrower margin, 4% to 5%, for convictions that end up overturned. DNA evidence can increase that rate up to 20%, but given the hurdles Peterson has encountered so far with introducing DNA and other evidence, it seems unlikely he'll be among that 20%.