Things That Don't Make Sense About The Bayesian Superyacht Sinking

The superyacht Bayesian sank on August 19, 2024 off the Sicilian coast near the port of Porticello. In what's been described as a freak weather accident, a tornado reportedly grabbed the anchored boat and dragged it across the water, causing its mast to tilt toward the waterline. The boat vessel eventually capsized as it was pulled underwater by its massive sail and mast. As of this writing, six have been confirmed dead, including its owner, "British Bill Gates" Mike Lynch. One survivor has since sent a grim text about the incident to her father.

In the aftermath of the tragedy, many are turning eyes to the things that just don't make sense about the event. Some even think it might not have been an accident. After all, Lynch was a wealthy man who was just acquitted in a multibilliondollar fraud case, and his codefendant — who was also exonerated — died in a car accident just days before the Bayesian sank. Conspiracies aside, the crew had plenty of time to warn passengers about the danger, and the ship allegedly sank in an astonishing amount of time.

From the moment the Bayesian was caught up in the tornadic waterspout to the point that it was ultimately dragged underwater, the crew reportedly had 16 minutes to warn passengers to evacuate. Speaking to the Financial Times, Giovanni Costantino — CEO of Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi, the company that built the Bayesian — blamed human error for the disaster. He said the boat's captain failed to put a "state of alert and of safety" and elsewhere told The Sun that the deadly tornado was "widely predicted." "The torture lasted 16 minutes," he told FT. "It went down, not in one minute as some scientists have said. It went down in 16 minutes. You can see it from the charts, from the AIS [Automatic Identification System] tracking chart." 

So what happened during this time? According to the Italian news agency Adnkronos, authorities said some passengers did travel across escape routes and made it to the opposite end of their vessel, where their bodies were later found. Unfortunately, water had already reached the cabins by this time, and the ship ultimately capsized and sank.

When the Bayensian finally began to sink, it did so within just 60 seconds — a speed that The Guardian says has baffled experts. "I have never seen a vessel of this size go down so quickly," sailor Karsten Borner, who captained the nearby Sir Robert Baden sailing ship and saw the Bayesian capsize, told the outlet. "Within a few minutes, there was nothing left. Then we saw the raft with the 15 passengers. It was a tragedy." Borner's ship fared well, something that Italian Sea Group CEO Giovanni Costantino noted to the Financial Times, saying it "handled the [weather] event brilliantly."

Various theories are swirling around what caused the Bayesian to sink so fast. One suggests the vessel's keel was the culprit — it was retracted instead of lowered. Boat manufacturer Sea Born told Fortune that the lack of stability from the structural beam could have caused the superyacht to "slip or skim on the water." Others suggest that someone might have left a hatch open, causing the boat to quickly take in large amounts of water. Costantino believes this is the likely reason for the incident, pointing to video images that have been released of the Bayesian so far. "It tilted 90 degrees for only one reason: because the water kept coming in," he told the FT.

If you're curious, here's a shipwreck that's frozen in time in a Norwegian lake.